Opposition Shake-Up

The behind-the-scenes role played by the US in the Syrian crisis moved further into the spotlight this week, with news that it has been pushing for the formation of an umbrella group incorporating as many strands of the opposition as possible, and at the same time excluding radical Islamists.

TThe move demonstrates US and Western frustration with the Syrian National Council (SNC), its lack of influence inside the country, and its reliance on exiles. In a press conference on Wednesday, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said that the SNC “can no longer be viewed as the visible leader of the opposition. They can be part of a larger opposition, but that opposition must include people from inside Syria and others who have a legitimate voice that needs to be heard.”

A new opposition grouping, the National Initiative Council, is to be unveiled at a meeting sponsored by the Arab League in Doha next week. Clinton admitted that the US government had recommended members and organizations it wished to see included in the leadership. She also warned opponents of the Syrian government that they needed to repudiate ‘extremists’ to retain international support.

The name of one of the leaders of the new body was leaked to the media on Thursday. Riyad Hijab, a former prime minister who defected to the opposition in August, is expected to be named to one of the 51 seats in the new council, according to a report in London’s Guardian newspaper. Foreign Policy magazine reported on Tuesday that the US State Department and the US ambassador to Syria, Robert Ford, have been closely involved in setting up the new body, and have been pushing for the incorporation of more members of minority groups. The SNC will be represented with 15 seats, and the famed Syrian dissident Riad Seif is expected to play a leading role. Some analysts claim that the new body is intended to form the nucleus of a provisional transitional government, though it remains to be seen if it will function effectively enough to carry out this role, let alone attract enough support within Syria itself.

These plans have met with a mixed reception. The SNC has criticized the move, saying that the lack of support for the council from the international community is the reason for its problems, while other rebels welcomed the creation of a new council. In an attempt to burnish its credentials, the SNC is planning to uproot itself from its base in Turkey and reestablish itself in northern Syria sometime next week, though many analysts question the impact of such a gesture.

While these moves may lead to the creation of a more united opposition outside Syria, within the country itself there are signs that intercommunal strife may be on the rise. This week has seen the emergence of reports of increasing divisions between various rebel groups and some Syrian Kurdish militias, with sporadic fighting and hostage-taking that has left dozens dead in northern Syria. According to the Washington Post, the fighting began last week after clashes between rebel groups associated with the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and Kurds aligned with the Democratic Union Party (PYD) in the city of Aleppo, after the rebels moved into Kurdish districts vacated by government forces. The same report warned of growing tensions between different Kurdish factions, namely the PYD and the more moderate Kurdish National Council.

China has also entered the diplomatic arena this week, after vetoing several UN resolutions critical of the Syrian government. On Wednesday, Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi proposed a four-point peace plan during a series of meetings with the joint Arab League–UN envoy for Syria, Lahkdar Brahimi. The plan calls for the adoption of a phased region-by-region ceasefire, negotiations between both sides, international support for negotiations, and a simultaneous effort to distribute humanitarian aid inside Syria and to refugees displaced by the fighting in neighboring states.
The fighting continues unabated within Syria, with government airstrikes around Damascus, Aleppo, and Homs, and increasing attempts to break the rebel siege of the Syrian military base close to the town of Maarat Al-Numan, along the strategic Aleppo–Damascus highway.

With the onset of winter, the humanitarian situation for refugees inside and outside Syria is increasingly dire. The failure of last week’s ceasefire has also meant that relief agencies like the UN High Commission for Refugees and the Syrian Arab Red Crescent were unable to reach all of their targets for aid distribution. Outside Syria, the situation is also troubling. During a visit to Germany on Wednesday, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan called the conflict a “catastrophe” that Turkey could not manage alone, and called on Germany to provide assistance.